WHY LIBYA IS SO COMPLICATED – AT 10:50 A.M. ET:  The news out of Libya is thoroughly confusing.  Bottom line:  Qaddafi is still in power.  From Fox:

TRIPOLI, Libya – Libyan tribal leaders are trying to get rebels in the city of Misrata to lay down their arms within 48 hours, a government official said early Sunday, after a day of fierce clashes between opposition fighters and Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces.

If negotiations fail, Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim said tribal chiefs may send armed supporters into the city of 300,000 to fight the rebels. In the meantime, the Libyan military is halting operations in Misrata, Kaim said.

Can you imagine?  In this day and age we're talking about tribes.  The impression given is that the tribes support Qaddafi, but that impression may be exaggerated.

However, the Misrata area is not known to have very large or dominant tribes, and rebels in the city questioned how much support Qaddafi had among them. It is also unclear whether the rebels would be willing to negotiate, particularly after claiming to have forced government forces to retreat. Kaim said tribal chiefs are still trying to get in touch with the rebels.

And...

Hundreds of people have been killed in two months of a government siege backed by tanks, mortars and snipers firing from rooftops. Late last week, rebels drove snipers from a tall downtown building, in a setback for Qaddafi loyalists who had controlled the city center. The rebels have defended positions around Misrata's seaport.

NATO has an air campaign going against government forces, and, although the U.S. has sent in pilotless drones, it has not sent in the very aircraft that could make a difference – the C-130 gunships and the deadly A-10 tank killers.  Obama seems to have no strategy and NATO has proved mostly ineffectual.

There is no identifiable end game here.  Combined with our strangely mild criticism of the brutal suppression of dissent in Syria, we look awfully weak.

April 24, 2011